NEW KCTS 9 WASHINGTON POLL RESULTS
Obama more than doubles his lead over Romney.
Inslee leads McKenna, still very close.
Ferguson leads by 10 points over Reagan Dunn in Attorney General’s race.
Majority of voters would approve same-sex marriage and legalize marijuana.
With less than a week to go until the November 6 election, the new results of the KCTS 9 Washington poll indicate that the candidates for Washington State governor are still in a dead heat, the majority of voters are leaning towards approving Referendum 74 (same sex marriage) and Initiative 502 (legalizing marijuana), incumbent U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell maintains a strong lead over her opponent Michael Baumgartner, and President Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney in Washington state has more than doubled since our first poll.
President Obama holds a solid 20 point lead over the Republican challenger among both registered voters and likely voters. The President also leads Mr. Romney by 25 points among women, and dominates among young voters aged 18 to 29, holding a 71% to 22% lead.
In the race for governor, Democrat Jay Inslee has widened his lead over Republican Rob McKenna slightly, but the race is still a practical dead heat. Among likely voters, Inslee leads McKenna 48.7% to 45.6%, but the two point separation is well within the margin of error. McKenna leads among male voters, while Inslee holds a slight edge among women. McKenna’s strongest leads over Inslee are among Tea Party and Independent voters.
In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Bob Ferguson holds about a 10-point lead over Republican Reagan Dunn among likely voters.
Initiative 1185, the measure requiring a two-thirds vote to increase taxes, continues to hold strong support, winning right now by 52% to 36%. But since our first wave of results, those opposed to 1185 have increased by six points, while support has dropped by two points. Initiatives on Charter Schools, and Legalizing Marijuana are both showing strong approval by nearly 20 points, and the yes vote among likely voters has nearly doubled for both initiatives since our first wave. The initiative on Same Sex Marriage is also poised to pass, 58% to 37% among likely voters. But when you adjust the numbers for possible social bias, the lead shrinks less than seven points, 52% to 46%.
The KCTS 9 Washington Poll is a comprehensive, scientific poll covering the major races and issues on the November ballot, including President of the United States, Washington’s Governor’s, U.S. Senate, and Attorney General races, Initiative 502 (legalizing marijuana), Initiative 1185 (tax increases), Initiative 1240 (charter schools), and Referendum 74 (same-sex marriage). Polling for the newest KCTS 9 Washington Poll was conducted between October 18 – 31, 2012. The poll sampled 722 registered voters and 632 likely voters, yielding a +/- 3.6% and +/- 3.9% margin of error respectively.
New KCTS 9 Washington Poll Highlights
Registered Voters Likely Voters
Barack Obama (D) 56.4% 57.1%
Mitt Romney (R) 35.9% 36.4%
Gary Johnson (L) 2.0% 2.0%
Jill Stein (G) 0.1% 0.1%
Other 1.7% 1.6%
Undecided 3.8% 2.8%
Jay Inslee (D) 47.2% 48.7%
Rob McKenna (R) 45.5% 45.6%
Undecided 7.4% 5.8%
U.S. Senate – Washington
Maria Cantwell (D) 59.4% 60.8%
Michael Baumgartner (R) 31.6% 33.3%
Undecided 9.0% 5.9%
Bob Ferguson (D) 44.2% 44.9%
Reagan Dunn (R) 32.4% 34.0%
Undecided 23.4% 21.1%
Referendum 74 – Marriage Equality
Yes 57.3% 57.9%
No 36.2% 36.9%
Undecided 6.0% 4.8%
Initiative 502 – Legalizing and Regulating Marijuana
Yes 55.8% 55.4%
No 36.7% 37.6%
Undecided 6.9% 6.8%
Initiative 1185 – 2/3 Majority to Raise Taxes
Yes 53.0% 52.0%
No 34.2% 36.8%
Undecided 11.8 % 10.5%
Initiative 1240 – Charter Schools
Yes 55.3% 55.5%
No 36.4% 37.5%
Undecided 7.0% 5.9%
[Note: percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.]
For complete KCTS 9 Washington Poll results, visit KCTS9.org/vote2012.