Vladimir Putin can’t win the war in Ukraine unless he unleashes nuclear missiles or nerve gas. Yet thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have been killed and will continue to die in the fighting. Millions have already fled, and that number will only grow. There are three reasons why Putin can’t hold Ukraine.

The first reason is that Putin is fighting a war better suited to 1944 than 2022. He has attacked Ukraine using tanks against a nation that has no tanks. Tanks are virtually obsolete, especially when the infantry doesn’t march in front to protect them from an enemy infantry armed with Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Javelins are designed to be fired at a tank, and following that, the propulsion flame from the missile is cut out so it can’t be easily tracked. The missile then rises into the air and comes down on the tank from above, hitting it where its armor is the weakest.

Attacking from three directions, north, south, and east makes the invasion of Ukraine a logistical nightmare for Russia. Supplying those gas-guzzling monsters that get 2-4 miles per gallon requires thousands of gallons of gasoline a day. Lack of fuel is why the convoy coming from Belarus stalled twenty-four miles from Kyiv.

The Russian army has not taken control of the air. The Ukrainian air force still operates. Stinger missiles fired by infantrymen can down Russian planes and helicopters, just like they did in Afghanistan against the Russians in the 1980s. The Ukrainians need replacements for destroyed planes to help turn the tide of battle in their favor.

The second reason that Putin can’t win is that, according to a Rand Corporation study, it takes twenty soldiers to control 1,000 people in the invasion of a country. (Beau of the 5th Column, “Let’s talk about why analysts are sure Russia won’t win…”, published March 9) Russia has only four soldiers per thousand people — at best.

The Ukrainian population is united against the invasion. Even a Ukrainian grandmother reportedly downed a Russian drone by hitting it with a jar of canned tomatoes thrown from a balcony. She then ran down and stomped on it, fearing it would attack her.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acted with courage and intelligence to rally his people. Two types of war are being waged at the same time. One is from the regular Ukrainian army and the other is by Ukrainian insurgents. Both forces choose where they will attack rather than battling the Russians on their terms. The Russian army has the advantage of size and equipment. Since the Russians are so deeply hated by a Ukrainian populace that is not trained, civilian actions are unpredictable. At any time, a civilian might attack Russian soldiers.

Ukrainian forces know the terrain much better than the Russians. The Ukrainians have removed road signs to confuse the Russian army whose soldiers are not familiar with the country. Putin lost the element of surprise a long time ago by taking so long to invade.

Additionally, between 16,000 and 25,000 seasoned combat volunteers from around the world have entered the war on the side of the Ukrainians. Russia has reportedly sent in the Wagner Group (a Russian mercenary company) and seasoned Syrian fighters to aid the largely inexperienced Russian army. Their numbers are about 5,000. Their methods are brutal and will only unite the populace and the world against them.

Third, the Russians have not controlled information during the war. Videos and accounts of Russians shelling hospitals and bombing civilians as they try to flee through cease-fire negotiated corridors have only turned the world against Russian brutality. Financial aid is flowing from all over the world to the Ukrainians. Even Airbnb has seen people around the world renting houses in Ukraine to provide funding for the Ukrainian cause without actually going to the country.

Due to sanctions and export boycotts, the Russian economy has tanked. Putin has tried to arrest demonstrators. Thousands of Russians have fled the country to neighboring Finland and other bordering nations.

If Putin continues this senseless war, he will bankrupt his nation. Putin’s worst nightmare is a protracted conflict that will deplete national reserves. Why does Putin continue? Pride, a delusional desire to return to the greatness of the Soviet Union, and a plan to provide strategic depth (buffer countries) to protect Russia.

Even if more Russian soldiers and better technology are used, they won’t be able to control the populace in the long term. Barring nuclear or bacterial/chemical warfare causing massive genocide, Putin can’t win the war. Putin’s decision to invade was a major blunder.

His decision has changed the world. What it will look like after the war is over will be ours to find out, for better or worse.