One trait we humans possess is our ability to see patterns. We see people or animals in clouds and paintings. The technical term for this ability is pareidolia. According to George Friedman in his recent Geopolitical Futures article entitled “Trump’s Diplomatic Model”, President Trump has developed a pattern regarding his negotiation style.

Understanding this model helps to understand how Trump thinks and how he deals with foreign and domestic affairs.

According to Friedman: “He [Trump] begins by making demands of other nations, then calls for negotiations. If the negotiations do not take place or fail to produce some kind of accommodation, he takes punitive action. All the while, he alternatively issues threats meant to intensify the process or encourages action by praising his antagonist.”

Friedman then gives several examples to illustrate this pattern:

Iran: Trump first demanded that Iran abandon its nuclear weapons program while threatening harsh consequences if it failed to do so. Then Trump began direct negotiations with the Iranian government stating publicly (either truly or falsely) that the negotiations were going well. He then set an artificial negotiation deadline date to complete an agreement. When that date passed without an agreement, Trump attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities using B-2 bombers carrying 30,000-pound bunker busting bombs, declaring that the nuclear sites had been “obliterated”.

NATO: Trump accused NATO countries of not living up to their financial obligations, accusing European countries of taking advantage of the U.S. Then negotiations began. Trump then threatened to pull out of NATO if his demands weren’t met. All the NATO members agreed to increase their percentage of military expenditures to 5% of their GDPs Then Trump praised the Europeans, saying that the U.S. remained committed to NATO.

The Global Trading System: Trump started off with extreme global tariff demands. Then he showed a willingness to negotiate with each nation individually.

Russia and Ukraine: Trump started these negotiations by publicly humiliating President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, saying he was prepared to reduce or even abandon Ukraine. Trump then started negotiations with Russia by taking Russia’s perspective that Ukraine was the aggressor, not Russia, thus lessening Russian anxieties. The message that Trump was conveying was that the U.S. was indifferent to Ukraine’s fate. He gave Putin time to strengthen its bargaining position, allowing Putin to save face over its bungled war.

At the same time, Trump used his overt hostility to NATO and Putin’s fear that NATO would attack Russia independently to protect itself without U.S. help. When the U.S. reconciled its differences with NATO, that put even greater pressure on Putin to negotiate an end to the war.

Whether Trump’s negotiating model works or not remains to be seen. We’re still in the preliminary stages of all of these conflicts. The point of Friedman’s article is that you are seeing Trump’s “Art of the Deal” internationally.

In a similar way, you can see patterns in regard to immigration, sending in the Marines to Los Angeles, and using ICE as his shock troops. Trump successfully negotiated passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, using threats and incentives.

You don’t have to like Trump’s techniques or strategies, or his lack of morality in his decision making. What’s important is that Trump’s negotiating style becomes clearer and clearer with time. How this approach will work in the Constitutional system of three branches of government with their checks and balances remains to be seen.

Whether you like or dislike Trump’s mannerisms and arrogance, we all can agree that Trump’s second term will change America forever.

The long-term result of Trump’s time in office will depend on what “We the People” decide we want to keep and what we want to restore after Trump is gone. The American people knew that they elected a convicted felon, sex offender, and an insurrectionist who was willing to overturn the vote of the people on January 6, 2021.

“We the People” have to live with our choices and Trump’s patterns whether we voted for him or not. Trump is taking an enormous gamble with America’s future, but so are the American people.