If you read the news as much as I do, you see that progressives are fear mongering Trump’s reelection to the presidency in 2024.
They’re no different from the Republicans who are using the using the strategy of emphasizing Biden’s age and mental decline while ignoring the fact that Donald Trump is only three years younger, is showing strong signs of mental decline, and has been indicted in four felony trials with 91 counts charged against him. Add to this the fact that he is a convicted rapist who continues to berate and malign his victim. This earned him a second (civil) trial and will likely lose women’s votes in the general election as well as millions of his fortune.
My prediction is that he will drop out of the presidential race. Donald Trump may win the Republican nomination, but like most of the candidates he endorsed in the 2022 Congressional elections, he can’t win the presidency and he knows it. His strategy is to keep himself out of prison by running for president as long as he can.
Here’s why I am making this prediction:
Trump hates losing. His former attorney Michael Cohen, who worked for Trump for twelve years, pointed this out years ago. Trump continues to claim the 2020 presidential election was stolen not just to rally his MAGA supporters, but also to cope with failure—that is, by using vehement and repeated denials of reality.
Its unlikely SCOTUS will rule that Trump has blanket immunity for his actions while president. This would set a dangerous precedent. Democratic President Biden could decide he is also immune from prosecution. This would allow Biden to do any number of things such as stop the election, imprison the Supreme Court, or remove the conservative SCOTUS judges and replace them with progressives. SCOTUS justices are well aware of this potential.
SCOTUS will likely uphold the states of Colorado and Maine in removing Trump’s name from state ballots. The 14th Amendment Section III is very clear about inciting and encouraging insurrection. Two Colorado courts have already ruled that Trump is guilty as charged. Additionally, conservative SCOTUS justices claim to be originalists—meaning that they will go back to the intent of the Republicans who created the 14th Amendment banning insurrectionists from running for political office. This Amendment came as a result of the Southern insurrection that caused the Civil War.
Trump’s long-term strategy has been to delay trials. Both of these major Supreme Court decisions could end his candidacy and allow the several trials to be decided before November’s election. This means that Trump is likely to be convicted on at least one of his indictments by the time of the November election. Polls have indicated that he will lose about 10% of Republican voters if he is a convicted felon.
The Iowa caucus results only gave Trump 51% of the votes. These votes were made by deeply involved conservative Republicans. This means that 49% of the votes were against Trump. Candidate Nikki Haley got 19% of the caucus vote. Half of her voters have stated they will vote for Biden if Trump becomes the Republican candidate. Republican voters make up about 40% of the voting public. Getting only half of die-hard Republicans for such a known candidate does not bode well for gaining Independents whose votes are absolutely vital to Trump winning in November.
Former Trump attorney Michael Cohen stated “He [Trump] cannot stomach the notion of being a two-time loser, but he will continue to grift until the very last second.”
I, too, am predicting Trump will drop out of the November presidential race, likely making the excuse that it affects his family.
Progressive editorialists have not told the nation this because fear mongering is being used to rouse their base to contribute campaign funds. While this may be necessary, it’s manipulative, but that’s politics. Progressives want their base to become roused enough to go out and vote against Trump like they did in the 2020 election.
Conservative pundits and politicians have continued to support Trump in spite of the facts and his fascistic rants. They have continued to lie to their base to keep them involved whereas progressives have only exaggerated to their base. Both want to keep the money rolling in and to keep their base on edge and involved.
Is there a way to get people to vote without lying to them or exaggerating? That’s one of the problems of democracy. I don’t have an answer for this dilemma.
Unfortunately, “The future’s not ours to see, ‘Que sera, sera.”